The problem with global warming isn’t a 1.5°C rise in temperatures
The real danger behind rising temperatures has got nothing to do with warming.
Global warming is not what will destroy society as we know it, displace billions of people and push billions more into poverty. These will be the results of knock-on effects, due to a rise in temperatures we failed to control.
It isn’t a 1.5°C increase in temperatures that will force the population of over 23 million people in Taiwan to abandon the island, it isn’t a 1.5°C increase in temperatures that will cause mass immigration of the 28 million people living in Madagascar, it isn’t a 1.5°C increase in temperatures that will force the evacuation of the nearly 20 million people living in coastal Florida, Texas and Lousiana.
No, a 1.5°C increase in temperatures will not be the reason hundreds of millions suffer in the coming decades; precipitated sea level rise drowning peoples’ homes and billions of dollars worth of property will, locust swarms of unprecendented proportions causing total crop failures will, hurricanes increasing in magnitude and frequency making coastal regions uninhabitable will, … There will be many more consequences to a 1.5°C increase in temperatures but make no mistake they will affect us all.
Focusing on this figure of 1.5°C may help policy makers plan and give us a target to aim for but it is also risks missing the point entirely.
Before making the case further about why we need to look past this number, let us take the time to really understand where it comes from and what it means.
A 1.5°C increase in temperatures does not mean we will all have a summer 1.5°C hotter and enjoy a winter 1.5°C warmer. When this figure gets discussed it is referring to a 1.5°C increase in the average temperature of our planet.
There are two crucial elements this figure fails to account for: geographical and temporal variation.
What is geographical variation?
The average temperature in the USA every year is 11.5°C. Whilst this figure has been calculated with the same scientific accuracy as the 1.5°C we have been discussing, they are as meaningless as each other.
The USA is a country the size of a continent with regions varying from arid deserts to swamplands, from temperate forests to rocky frozen peaks, and everything in between. Clearly whilst the national average may be 11.5°C, each state will have its own average and within that, each county will have its own.
In fact, each district, county and state contribute their own local temperature readings to the national database. These are compiled together, added up and then divided by the total number of entries to get an average. This average, though potentially useful, fails entirely to account for which regions may have higher or lower temperatures than others and consequently, which regions may be getting warmer or cooler.
The whole picture is lost when we reduce complex information to simple averages.
The whole planet is much larger than the USA and much more diverse. The Earth is home to frozen wastelands, tropical islands, rainforests, tundras, deserts, mountains, grasslands and many others. These various habitats have their own local average temperatures and they are dependent upon them remaining stable.
Unfortunately, all these regions are warming up throughout the world, but they are not warming up at the same rate. Just like the average temperature in the USA is calculated from adding together all the state averages and misses out on their variation, the average increase in world temperatures is calculated by adding together all the local increases in temperature and misses out on the variation that is actually taking place.
Our common home is not warming up evenly, we are not seeing a 1.5°C increase in temperatures worldwide, what we are seeing from predictive models by NASA and other top institutions is a 10°C increase in the North Pole, a 6°C increase across Australia, 2.5°C for most of Europe, 1–2°C across the planet’s oceans and everything in between all across the world.
What is temporal variation?
Temporal variation can be explained by the fact that temperatures in any given location are not the same year-round.
Take Europe for example, a continent with local climates varying from oceanic to continental and mediterranean. Each of these climates can be looked at in terms of yearly fluctuations in temperatures.
Oceanic climates are temperate with temperatures never getting too hot nor too cold. In the UK for example, temperatures rarely go below 0°C or above 30°C. Continental climates see both extremes, Romania will go to sub-zero temperatures every winter and average over 30°C in the summer months. Mediterranean climates on the other hand are very warm in the summer and mild in the winter, rarely reaching 0°C.
All of this information gets clumped up, added together and divided by the number of readings to get an average, wiping out any variation in the data.
It is essential to understand how these local variations in temperature affect the natural environment. An increase in average temperatures translates to shorter winters and longer summers. Longer droughts and more violent storms are a result of this temporal variation.
Once again, the 1.5°C figure entirely fails to account for any of this change in seasons that our planet is already experiencing and which only promises to get worse.
Now, why is this even important at all?
It is essential to consider variation when thinking about global temperature rise to understand why a 1.5°C in temperatures will have a devastating impact on the world we know today.
For the past 12,000 years the planet has seen an unprecedented period of stable temperatures that have allowed early humans to discover agriculture and civilisation to begin. This time period has been known as the Holocene, an era of unimmaginably perfect environmental conditions for humanity to thrive. Today, we have entered the Anthtopocene.
The era we live in today is one in which humanity has become a geological force capable of affecting the fragile balance of the planet and we have been wielding this force recklessly for many years.
Tipping the scale by 1.5°C in average worldwide temperatures means a series of devastating consequences because of geographical and temporal variation.
A 10°C increase in temperatures in the North Pole will result in the total loss of Arctic ice and the melting of some of the world’s largest reserves of fresh water, a resource we are already wasting too much of. Permafrost, ground which in some cases has been frozen for hundreds of years, will thaw, releasing greenhouse gases that have been trapped until today, further increasing the warming effect that caused its melting in the first place.
The complete meltdown of ice sheets and ice caps will add so much water into the oceans that many islands will disappear and coastlines across the world will be flooded, displacing billions of people regardless of race, ethnicity or wealth.
Longer and hotter summers in California (5°C increase) and Australia (6°C increase) will cause wildfires of unprecedented size and intensity as plants that evolved to spread by fire erupt in flames. The ensuing property damage will be unimaginable and the loss of life unacceptable.
Hot oceans accumulate more energy and boost the strength and magnitude of hurricanes travelling towards the coast. In 2020, scientists ran out of letters in the alphabet to name all the storms we experienced. If the oceans do heat up by 2°C, the Greek, Roman and Cyrillic alphabets combined may not be enough to name all the storms anymore.
Crop failures worldwide will become common place as droughts are harsher and longer, threatening food security on a global scale. Countries such as Madagascar are already experiencing this change with famines caused by global warming.
It isn’t a 1.5°C increase in average temperatures that will destroy modern human society, it is each and every localised knock-on effect of this change.
We are at a time of reckoning and the more we focus on a number of little significance, the more we miss the big picture.
We absolutely need to stop pumping as much carbon dioxide into the air as we possibly can but if we do not account for the change in temperatures already occuring in regions across the globe, we will miss our chance to keep the world average below 1.5°C.
Policymakers are failing to see what lies behind this 1.5°C figure, yet that is where the focus of attention should be. If we continue to focus on a meaningless statistic without understanding its real world effects, we will not deal with it with the urgency it requires.
Every year, society continues to fret over the latest stock market returns or GDP reports, all the while thinking that a 1.5°C rise in temperatures really cannot be that bad.
Media outlets continue to discuss this 1.5°C figure, using it as the headline of every article but failing to see it’s significance. Now you know what it means, so next time you hear people talking about it, share with them what is hiding behind this number.
The world we live in is out of sync with reality and sooner or later we will all pay the price, unless we wake up now.
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